November 01, 2005
2005-2006 NBA Preview: Western Conference
Gotta be a homer for the post picture...
Maybe not a lot of people are interested, but I do love professional basketball (even if its interminably long playoffs pale in comparison to March Madness). I'm going to try to be realistic about my hometown Rockets, even as I believe that they're poised for a measurable improvement. My playoffs predictions...
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Los Angeles Clippers
(4) Houston Rockets vs. (5) Phoenix Suns
(3) Sacramento Kings vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks
(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
Dallas: It's basically Dirk Nowitski's team, with a whole lineup of young, athletic guards (Josh Howard, Marquis Daniels, Jason Terry), but not a whole lot of interior presence. However, I think losing Michael Finley eliminates a real scoring threat and means they've probably taken a step backwards.
Houston: Made key upgrades at point guard (Rafer Alston) and power forward (Stromile Swift) without losing a whole lot; a lot of their success may hinge on improved defensive play and rebounding from Yao Ming and the ability of Derek Anderson to provide some instant offense off the bench. If it weren't for the Spurs, they would be a definite favorite to win the division; unfortunately, with the Spurs the highest they can seed is 4.
Memphis: I have them finishing just out of the playoffs, along with the Warriors, because they lost too much (Jason Williams, Posey) without getting too much (an oft-injured Bobby Jackson) to fill the slots. It's a tough conference.
San Antonio: No reason to think they aren't the favorites (12 of 12 sportswriters on ESPN's site had them winning the 2006 NBA Championship); and as much as I don't like the franchise, it's hard to disagree until somebody upsets them in the playoffs, especially with the addition of veteran bench support like Nick van Exel and Michael Finley.
Denver: The beneficiaries of being in a weakened division; if the big men (Camby and Kenyon Martin) stay healthy, they should have enough depth to ride Carmelo Anthony to the division title. Andre Miller and Earl Watson should probably one of the best 1-2 point guard punches in the league.
Lakers: Any team with a healthy Kobe Bryant has a shot of making the playoffs (I don't believe that Phil Jackson is all that much of a factor); throw in Lamar Odom and decent center play from a Chris Mihm/Kwame Brown combo and veteran leadership with Aaron McKie, and I think they're a marginal playoff team.
Clippers: Am I on crack? Possibly. However, they have great veteran guards (Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley) to go with talented youngsters Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, and Chris Wilcox. However, the 7th through the 12th spots in the division are a toss-up, they will all probably have 40-45 wins. So I'm picking the most historically woeful for a little love.
Phoenix: Strange for a team that won 60+ games to make a significant overhaul; in addition, the loss of Amare Stoudamire for most of the first half of the season should slow down MVP Steve Nash and the new pieces (James Jones, Kurt Thomas). Should be a much slower, defense-oriented team than last year's.
Sacramento: Probably just marginally better than the Suns because of Amare's injury; still has a lot of guns (Mike Bibby, Peja, Bonzi Wells, Brad Miller) with an improved interior presence from the players traded for the now-decrepit Chris Webber. Just enough balance to win the division and get a 2 or 3 seed.
I don't think that Kevin Garnett (Minnesota) and Ray Allen (Seattle) are going to be enough to carry their respective teams this year; however I think that only Utah, Portland, and New Orleans/Oklahoma City are bad enough to be out of any sort of playoff talk. Game on!
P.S. If you want to read more about today's high dramatics in the Senate, here you go. Sorry, I was a/f/k at the time, and I should probably defer to the professionals and housebound lunatics who can watch cable news in the middle of the day.
My brief take: it's only surprising because we've done without 1.4-party-government for so long. You go without it for too long, all you get are counterproductive wars, record debt, and Bill Frist doing remote diagnoses of brain-dead patients. So if you don't like basketball, here's your open thread on that. I got captions to work on.
Would I be a perv if I said that's a hot picture? I sure hope so.
Posted by: vachon at November 1, 2005 07:49 PMit's only surprising because we've done without 1.4-party-government for so long. You go without it for too long, all you get are counterproductive wars, record debt, and Bill Frist doing remote diagnoses of brain-dead patients.
sam alito what?
for the first time, houston is scary deep, which gives some hope against the spurs and mavs. derek anderson gets to start because wesley is still a little slow from surgery, but it all changes when sura comes back.
i like the clippers, too, but the kings should struggle - bibby and peja would look good on anybody's team but they shouldn't be the 1-2 options.
Posted by: paperpusher at November 2, 2005 08:21 AMOkay, first of all, Cuttino Mobley and Sam Cassell are both young for their ages, so as far as I'm concerned, all of the Clippers starting 5 are 'talented youngsters'. That's a very dangerous 5. And when they're sitting down, that team sucks. But they have as good a chance to sneak in as anybody else.
I believe the Rockets now have an edge over the Spurs. There, I said it, and I'll take my mock-lumps like the mock-man I am. The Spurs have some great players, but they are (other than Bowen) not a defensive team. In contrast, I think the Rockets will be able to clamp down on opposing offenses, particularly if Yao can continue to show progress at defending the post.
i must defer to you guys on the clippers. i stopped paying attention to that franchise after they traded whatshishead - brand? - to chicago a few years ago.
i have a feeling that phoenix may be able to ride a wave into maybe the third round; it took tim duncan a whole year to recover from knee trouble, and amare may be a completely different player 05-06. denver should be fun to watch; sacramento's makes me sad; i must disagree with you on the lakers, norb - phil will make all the difference, and he may be single-handedly responsible for the resurrection of kwame brown; seattle may be another fun team to watch; ppl need to lay the fuck off yao ming and take him as the great player he is, though i think how - who - tracy decides to be will determine how that team fares. what will surely be a season-full of eva longoria references cannot keep me from riding the tim duncan bandwagon deep deep deep into the playoffs.
Posted by: dexter at November 2, 2005 09:12 AMCare to retract your #3 selection of Suckramento after they got their Shareef Abdur-Ra-Asses handed to them last night by the mighty Oklahomo City Hornets? In their defense, however, they were going up against P.J. 'I'm still a professional basketball player?' Brown...
And I wouldn't count out Utah so quickly. If AK-47 and Deron (don't call me der-ahn) Williams both stay healthy, they could surprise.
Posted by: drew at November 2, 2005 10:15 AMOh, and props for having the guts to actually type the words, "decent center play from a Chris Mihm/Kwame Brown combo". I feel the same away about the Sonics. If they can get decent guard play from the Flip Murray/Mateen Cleeves combo, they'll be 'a-iiight'...
Posted by: drew at November 2, 2005 10:23 AMI don't think Karma is finished with the West after Laker-loving pundit Kevin Drum announced the winner of the 2003 Conference finals was the de facto league champ. It's too bad everybody has to suffer, but that's how it is. Wiping out the Suns without anybody touching a ball is just part of it. Remember what happened to Paula Abdul. This shit is serious.
Detroit lost last year only because its Karma was even worse, but that's all been cleared up with the new dress code. Spurs go down in five. Twelve out of twelve sportswriters can't be right.
What have you got against the Spurs?
I don't really follow management, but the Spurs have been MY team since the days of the Chapparals.
Posted by: Charles Watkins at November 4, 2005 01:14 AM